One sure learning of global financial crisis of 2008 has been the inherent flaws of over dependence of data modelling. The pricing of derivatives were dependent too much on data modelling and ignores the real risk and ignores the real risk of basis, fact tails. WHO seems to have ignored all such learning and resorted to flawed data modelling for projecting on sensitive topic of pandemic induced debts. Despite India’s objection to the process, methodology and outcomes of the modeling or mathematical model or exercise, World Health Organisation (WHO) released the excess mortality estimates. WHO has done this without adequately addressing India’s concerns and taking into account what India’s system of data generation and production says. The World health agency did this despite the fact that India had already informed WHO that given the availability of authentic data published through the Civil Registration System by the Registrar General of India (RGI), modeling or mathematical models should not be used for projecting excess mortality numbers for India.
The branch of Economics dealing with such projections is Econometrics. Econometrics is the application of statistical methods to economic data in order to give empirical content to economic relationships. A basic tool for econometrics is the multiple linear regression model. Econometric theory uses statistical theory and mathematical statistics to evaluate and develop econometric methods. While using such techniques, Economists are well aware of the limitation of these modeling techniques and try to steer away from controversies esp when real data is available.
Under the law in India, the chief registrar of every state is given one year to send the compiled data on births and deaths to the RGI for collation and publication. India did it right by firmly conveying its concern that the robust and accurate data generated through the legal framework of states must be respected, accepted and used by WHO, rather than relying on factually inaccurate mathematical projection based on non-official sources of data as India has a robust, efficient and comprehensive system for registering deaths. All Covid fatalities have systematically been recorded with full transparency following a legal process in the country.
The WHO and other mathematical modelers’ approach towards the data provided by the Indian agencies, appeared ridiculous as they went ahead with their calculations as if India had no system in place to enumerate the deathcount. The WHO simply plunged into calculating mortality based on minuscule samples collected through informal and unconfirmed channels and sources. All this has happened when Civil Registration System (CRS) and Sample Registration System (SRS) data have been made available. Indian law mandates that the informers and the registrar must complete the process of registration within 21 days regarding death and birth. The RGI has a statutory duty to declare these figures. The CRS figure is about 81 lakh deaths for the calendar year 2020, which is 4.7 lakh higher than the previous year. India has even more reliable system than the CRS is SRS. It is the world’s largest demographic survey and has been in practice since the sixties. Through eight million house visit, a corpus of data on fertility and mortality is created.
But, the WHO’s technical advisory group selected India for its modeling or mathematical model without engaging with the RGI. They relied upon media reports, inadequate information received from RTI responses and other unconfirmed sources without thinking that none of these sources is representative enough to justify its decision to cover a country as large as India. Clearly, it’s a disservice to a time honoured and decade old national system. WHO’s act is also against UN systems, which rely only on national data sources. This seems to be simply an attempt to sensationalise and show the country in a poor light, at a time when in spite of resource churn and poor healthcare infrastructure, its global stature and presence is increasing due to its proper handing of the pandemic handing at home and helping the needy countries. Hence, it was an attempt to tarnish India’s image as a responsible country.
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