Demand Destruction – Another way of controlling inflation?

A measure of demand by USA consumers has hit all time low at a time which is seeing very high consumer price inflation, a paradox of sorts, creating a unique situation which can be termed as “Demand Destruction”. Each month University of Michigan publishes USA Consumer Sentiment Index. The consumer confidence measures were devised in the late 1940s which have now developed into an ongoing, nationally representative survey based on telephonic household interviews, and the index is normalized to have a value of 100 in the first quarter of 1966. This index helps to understand how consumers view their own financial situation and the economy, short-term and long-term.

The official release from the university states,”The final June reading confirmed the early-June decline in consumer sentiment, settling 0.2 Index points below the preliminary reading and 14.4% below May for the lowest reading on record. Consumers across income, age, education, geographic region, political affiliation, stockholding and homeownership status all posted large declines. About 79% of consumers expected bad times in the year ahead for business conditions, the highest since 2009. Inflation continued to be of paramount concern to consumers; 47% of consumers blamed inflation for eroding their living standards, just one point shy of the all-time high last reached during the Great Recession……Consumers also expressed the highest level of uncertainty over long-run inflation since 1991, continuing a sharp increase that began in 2021.”

Central Banks across the globe have been raising rates in a very aggressive manner, perhaps most aggressive in this millennium. Soaring Food and Fuel prices over last three month have posed high inflation problem in front of surprised central banks which have been pumping liquidity since Global Financial Crisis. Higher and adamant inflation level might have started due to supply constraints but demand for goods came at unprecedented speed too. Especially in USA where almost half of consumed goods are imported and increase in disposable income of lower income strata on account of covid relief fund distributed fuelled unprecedented demand for available goods. Covid induced social distancing norms meant much of this extra cash in hands could not be spent on services. The sudden surge in demand for goods and inability of producing at home meant windfall gains opportunities for shipping companies though. However painful the situation became due to runaway inflation, supply side ramp up is no where in sight for the biggest economy in the world. A measure of activities in US manufacturing and services, Composite Purchasing Managers Index, fell to lowest level in last 5 months too. With no surge in supply to match the unmet demand consumers are feeling low in confidence about their financial condition as well as robustness of the economy, i.e. needs of goods has to be withdrawn – Demand Destruction is here.

Gun Control in World’s Oldest Democracy

The world still looks at America with a great deal of lustre, as it sees it as a land of opportunities and unhindered openness. However, the rising mass shootings puzzle its fans and critics alike. Rrecent mass shootings in Uvalde, Texas and Buffalo in New York, took more than 30 lives including 19 children. This illustrates the malaise of the masses in the American society. The country, which registers the highest number of mass shootings annually among wealthy nations with the highest gun ownership per capital in the world, draws frequent derision for this.

A welcome move by the US Senate to check this menace of mass shootings has been struck down by its Supreme Court, arguing the Americans have a constitutional right to carry handguns or firearms in public for self-defence. The Senate’s decision and the apex court ruling also bring to the fore the deep divide over firearms in the American society. However, the Senate bill approved in a 65-33 vote, happened to be the first significant gun control initiative in almost three decades. The Supreme Court ruling invited sharp reactions even from US President Joe Biden. President Biden expressed his deep disappointment, saying that the SC ruling contradicts both common sense and the constitution. After Senate, the US Congress also appeared set to approve the modest gun law changes, which no one in several decades could garner courage to amend despite demands from a section of people. The new development may ultimately encourage more people to legally carry guns on the streets, which may further create social and psychological upheavals.

The gun law was enacted in 1913 under the US constitution’s second amendment. According to available data, in 2020, more than 45,000 Americans died at the end of a barrel of a gun. Between, 1968 and 2017, the deaths in gun fire were higher than the number of soldiers killed in all US conflict since the American war for Independence in 1775. Americans make up about 4.4% of the global population but they own 42% of the world’s guns. Adjusted for population, only Yemen has higher rate of mass shootings among countries with more than 10 million people.

There is still a tinge of hope as American states could do something in this direction. President Biden also urged states to go further and enact and enforce commonsense laws to make the people safer from gun violence. But the way this gun law acquires political proportion in the USA, it leaves little chance in near future for such an initiative again. Democrats are nearly unanimous in their support for stricter gun laws, however only around a quarter percentage of Republicans favour this amendment. Other countries from the developed world took timely steps to check this menace of gun culture. For example, Britain instituted a gun control laws just after it had a mass shootings in 1987 and so did Australia after a mass shooting in 1996. But such has not been the case with America. It is not that firearm is a part of American culture or upbringing, but the way it is becoming an epidemic, doesn’t augur well for American brand too.

Growth of Digital Economy in India

Digitalization acquires a critical element in the development of the modern economy, giving birth to an all new term- ‘Digital Economy’ as it promises to add a lot more within a short span of time. Therefore, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi says, – India’s digital economy is going to be one trillion dollar by 2025 and country’s digital economy and the infrastructure sector has a total potential for 2.5 trillion dollar, it startles very few.

Digitalization or the digital transformation of the economy is essentially introduction of information and communication technologies in a sector in order to increase its efficiency, productivity, extents and competitiveness, thereby creating an innovative high-tech digital economy. Introduction of digital technologies in various sectors of the economy, such as medicine, education, housing, community services, agriculture, manufacturing, service sector and others, is fast changing the face of these industries. However, digital transformation must be intentionally inclusive and thoughtfully designed and implemented to ensure that all are well taken care of and no one is left behind.

And in India, permeating all aspects of society and influencing the way we carry out economic activities, digital technologies are playing the role of a great equaliser by distributing the fruits of economic developments to all, thereby bringing sociological changes too. India’s inclusive digital model is narrowing the digital divide among people and bringing benefits of technology to all segments of people, as less affluent states leapfrog to catch up with more affluent ones on dimensions such as internet subscriber growth, density of internet infrastructure and common service centres.

Digital technologies such as data pooling, Artificial intelligence and others are now widely used to track and diagnose issues in agriculture, health, environment, logistics, jobs and skills market, e-governance, performing daily tasks such as navigating traffic, paying a bill, financial transactions and others. Through Digital India Programme, the Government of India is focusing much on creating a strong foundation of digital infrastructure and expanding digital access to all, creating tremendous economic value and empowerment of citizens as new digital applications permeate sector after sector. These efforts have made India the second-fastest digitizing economy amongst 17 leading economies of the world and country’s digital economy may generate productivity and output sufficient to support 55 million to 60 million workers in 2025.

India’s digital vision is based on citizen centric services, where transparency and accountability are ensured as it envisions a kind of digital transformation that allows everyone – whether in rural or urban areas and irrespective of their economic or social status, take ample benefits. However, to stay ahead in the race, we need to bring in changes in our approach to education and training by placing more emphasis on science, technology, engineering, maths, soft skills, resilience, skilling, re-skilling, up-skill of the people in general.

In human development, technology has always played a revolutionary role, changing the features of the labour force, creating a new face, form, pattern and process of works and bringing about wider economic and societal changes. Spurred by the digital revolutions, the current wave of changes appears to be having much more profound impacts over the humanity and its course than others happened in history.

Presidential Tussles, India and Beyond

With the announcement of candidates by both ruling and opposition parties for the presidential election, curtains have finally come down on high-pitched speculation spree on candidacy that has been going on for quite some time. Undoubtedly, the President of India is the most significant position in Indian democratic system. A host of articles – from 52 to 62 of the constitution – provide information about the election process, powers, functions and impeachment process of the President. Being the head of the state, the first citizen of the country and the most important part of the Union Executive along with Vice-President, Prime Minister, Council of Ministers and Attorney-General of India, President of India is also a symbol of solidarity, unity and integrity of the nation. Hence, the election to this top job becomes all the more important for the nation.

In between, owing to us deriving much of the inspiration from the British constitution, a comparison is often drawn between President of India and British Queen. Moreover, they do share several similar rights and powers in their respective nations like both can summon the parliament, however the fact remains that the Constitution of India gives much more power to the President to protect the constitutional democracy of the country. A British Monarch can be questioned by the House of Lords, whereas the President of India is not answerable to any court. When parliament is in session, the British Monarch is restricted to visit foreign lands, while there is no such restriction ever applies to the President of India. British Crown is hereditary, whereas Indian President is elected every five years.

Sometimes, comparisons are also drawn between Indian and American system of governance. However, it is widely regarded that Indian constitution favours pluralism in true sense more than the US system of governance, inspiring even a small group of people to form their political party and participate in the election process, whereas American system majorly favours only two party system and elections are very costly, making it very difficult for a simple individual to go up in the political hierarchy, however in Indian system even a poor can wish for the top job.

This has resulted in making the US model highly bipolar deepening the democratic divide in a very deploring way. The ever-charged tussle between the Republicans and Democrats is restricted not just to the political corridors of the United Nations, not just to the people living in America but traverses beyond the US borders, globally. On the other hand, In India there’s multi-layered, multi-faceted prospects, opportunities and opinions. The systems here share a beautiful blend with the country’s diversity of religion, culture, gender, social background, language etc. “It is the strength of Babasaheb’s Constitution that a gentleman hailing from deprived and exploited class has become the president (Ram Nath Kovind), while the vice-president ( M Venkaiah Naidu) is from a farmer’s family,” PM Modi once said in a rally.

Moreover, India is a sovereign socialist secular democratic republic with a parliamentary form of government which is federal in structure with unitary features. There is a council of ministers with the Prime Minster as its head to advice the President who is the constitutional head of the country. Similarly in states there is a council of ministers with the chief minister as its head, who advices the Governor.

PLI & 5G Testbeds to prepare for better defence communication

Indian Army has been using one of its arms, the ‘Corps of Signals’ for handling military communications. For this, a robust & secure strategic infrastructure is needed to assist soldiers’ transformation into a potent, highly synergized and fully networked force. But the ambitious growth goals of the country need more pedigree in order to build a vast, multilayered and tech-sealed patrolling network. As India’s defence domain plans to take its capabilities to dizzying heights, it would now require unfailing support from other domains too, with Electronics and Telecom being one of the prime picks.

At present, many proactive measures are being taken to leverage both existing and emerging technologies to facilitate this seamless transition. The Rs.11,330 crore Network for Spectrum (NFS) was rolled out recently which aims at laying an alternate communication network for Defence Services for release of spectrum and boosting the communication capabilities in a major way leading to enhanced national operational preparedness. The project has forward linkages to other related industries such as telecom equipment manufacturing and other telecommunication related services as well. In another development, the Indian Army had collaborated with IIT Madras to establish a 5G Testbed at the Military College of Telecommunication Engineering (MCTE). The Test Bed will facilitate the Indian Army to utilise the 5G technology for its operational use, especially along its borders.

In this way, the defence sector is rightly experiencing a convergence with the telecom sector at the right time when India is exploring opportunities that technologies like 5G and schemes like PLI can present. The Department of Telecom (DoT) has launched an incentive scheme for design-led manufacturers and extended the PLI scheme for telecom by one year. The move is aimed at incentivising design-led manufacturing in the telecom sector, which comes days after India took its first step towards 5G rollout when the Union Cabinet approved a proposal to invite applications for 5G spectrum auctions.

This will also result in bolstering the Defence Startup ecosystem in the country as any latest technology, communication-based or otherwise, is like fuel for this heavy sector. In a bid to support Indian startups, the Defence Minister had also launched the sixth edition of the Defence Indian Startup Challenge (DISC) under the iDEX programme in April this year. Under this, the Defence ministry backs startups that can offer software solutions such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), advanced imaging, sensor systems, big data analytics, autonomous unmanned systems and secured communication systems to the Indian military. MoD also aims to support Indian startups by offering financial assistance in the range of INR 1.5 Cr to INR 10 Cr. under this challenge.

Defence Startup Culture in the country is also expected to flourish in few years time as India looks forward to having trained, poised and industry-ready Agniveers as supporting staff soon. One can also expect a lot of defence-related startups mushrooming 3-4 years from now across the country, taking the defence ecosystem to hit new heights. Prospects of achieving unprecedented success will be especially brighter for those Agniveers, who possess an interest and understanding of both defence and Technology.

March towards Youth Engagement and Leadership

While many raise doubts and questions regarding the professional prospects for Agniveers after 4 years of intense training, a very foundational aspect is being missed out to be taken into consideration. Armed forces are known for discipline, compassion and service more than anything else. Not surprisingly, all these three qualities are also being seen as the essential requirement in the booming entrepreneurship and startup culture of New India. Combine ground training in extreme weather conditions and difficult terrains to the idea, and India is ready with trained, poised and industry-ready youth that is both able and eager to fill the country’s economic potholes. This lot will not only possess leadership qualities but their sense of service and submission are some of the natural instincts that the country can certainly look forward to.

Even before the process of recruitment starts under the transformative ‘Agnipath scheme’, the offers of jobs are splurging for the ‘Agniveers’ from both government and private entities. With Anand Mahindra- the chairman of the business conglomerate Mahindra Group and Harsh Goenka of RPG group announcing their readiness to hire ‘Agniveers’, many more corporate companies are expected to come up with such offers. Profusely appreciating the ‘Agnipath scheme’ Sanjeev Bikhchandani, the founder of Naurki.com has also said that Agniveers will have a sense of service and commitment and after serving the army for four years, they can easily adapt into a number of career options.

The calls pouring in for the Agniveers are exhilarating. State governments like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh among others have promised to give them reservations in state police forces and others. Union Home Ministry has already announced that the in Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) and Assam Rifles, Agniveers would be given priority. CAPFs include forces such as BSF, CISF, CRPF, ITBP, NSG and SSB. An announcement of 10% reservation in the Coast Guard, defence civilian posts and all the 16 defence public sector undertakings (DPSU) has already been made. Many other central ministries, PSUs & corporations have also pledged priority to Agniveers.

To support the ‘Agniveers’ on completion of their tenure, various public sector banks, public sector insurance firms and financial institutions have committed to explore employment opportunities for them in a meeting with Finance Ministry. Banks have also committed to explore the possibilities of supporting ‘Agniveers’ through suitable credit facilities for skill upgradation, education for setting up ventures and to instill the notion entrepreneurship. Importantly, the present government schemes like ‘MUDRA Yojana’, ‘Stand Up India’ scheme among others would also be leveraged to extend support to these soldiers. Besides, the Department of Telecom held a meeting with all the Telecom Service Providers (TSPs) like Airtel, BSNL, Reliance Jio and Vodafone-Idea to discuss ways and means on how they can be utilized. During discussions, some areas like Optical Fibre Maintenance, Air Conditioning equipment, provision of infrastructure especially last mile connectivity, Fibre to Home (FTTH) and in customer interface areas, were identified in which engagement and employment of ‘Agniveers’ could be done. Youth affairs and sports ministry under Anurag Thakur has also announced that after 4 years of service, Agniveers would be considered for appointment as physical education teachers in schools.

Officials from the Armed forces and skill development and education ministries have already begun discussions on building a framework to enhance skills to be acquired by Agniveers. In the first round, they identified sectors like aviation, shipping, automotive, drone technology and management, armoured vehicles management, submarine related skilling courses during their four years of service itself. Ministry of skill development and entrepreneurship (MSDE) is going to collaborate with various wings of the armed forces to train the Agniveers in additional courses to offer them ‘Skill India Certificate’ while in service, enabling them to pursue diverse opportunities in entrepreneurship and job roles. All organizations related to ‘Skill India’ plan like Directorate General of Training, National Skill Development Corporation, various Sector Skills Councils, entrepreneurship institutes NIESBUD, IIE and skills regulators NCVET will be connected with this process of ensuring that Agniveers get the required certifications while in jobs.

Allaying the fears of fewer recruitments, Army vice-chief Lt-General B S Raju has said that Indian Army would progressively scale up the annual recruitment from 40,000 Agniveers this year to 1.2 lakh by the seventh or eighth year and then 1.6 lakh by the tenth or eleventh year under the Agnipath scheme. If apprehensions still exist, it is nothing but pure politics being played out by the vested interests, negatively fanning feelings of the youth.